MatSavant charts 3,840 NCAA matches, rips 3-point takedown
Tony Ramos says go back to two, Adam Tirapelle says one rule change will not move the needle.
MatSavant analyzed every point scored in the last six NCAA Division I tournaments, 3,840 matches, and said the results are not a great story for the 3-point takedown. The split is even, 1,920 matches in the 2-point takedown era and 1,920 in the 3-point era, all of it between the best D1 wrestlers in the country. MatSavant wrote that the data supports some of the more cynical predictions made when 3-point takedowns were proposed.
The replies turned into the rules argument the sport has been circling for years.
Ramos wants two, Tirapelle says it will not matter
Tony Ramos (@t_ram133) called it exactly what many people already predicted and said it is time to go back to 2-point takedowns. Adam Tirapelle pushed the other way. He still thinks three is the right risk and reward value relative to other scoring categories, and his issue is that nothing else in the rulebook changed around it. No punishment for out of bounds, no liberal reward for control, and overtime still sitting there at the end.
Tirapelle's read on elite matches is that two good wrestlers now assume overtime is coming and wrestle to keep something in reserve, which is why so many first periods end with no score and no real attempt. He compared the rules to a house of cards, where one change without addressing the consequences does nothing.
The stalling fix nobody has agreed on
Tony Rotundo floated an automatic double stall call if the first period ends 0-0, pointing out that three minutes can pass with neither wrestler getting a stall, and that a leader with no stalls in the third just runs. Tirapelle said, as much as he hates to admit it, a freestyle-style system might be worth trying, a warning at one minute with no score, another at two minutes, and a third around 2:30 that hands over a point. His line was that creating urgency forces action without compromising the integrity of the sport, and he cited the ball grab as an example of integrity compromised.
Jon Kozak asked for more from the data, specifically the takedown trend over the past 20 years to separate the rule change from wrestlers simply getting better at defense, plus how majors and techs were affected. He also questioned whether the old ruleset's answer was better, extending a match another 2-3 minutes with no takedowns versus just being done after seven.
The Wrestling Nomad noted that anyone wanting a bigger sample is out of luck because college wrestling does not do box scores for regular season duals. Jason Bryant pointed back to a three-part @NWCAMatStats podcast series from April that broke the same question down.
I analyzed every point scored in the last 6 NCAA National Tournaments, which totals 3,840 matches, between the best D1 wrestlers in the country.
We have data now and it鈥檚 time to go back to 2pt takedowns.
We could switch back to a 2 point takedown and I don't think that single change moves the needle at all.