MatSavant's 3,840-match data guts the 3-point takedown
MatSavant charted every point from six NCAA tournaments and found scoring down in every category but one: stall points against the winning wrestler jumped 84 percent. Tony Ramos wants 2-point takedowns back, Adam Tirapelle says that fixes nothing.
Big news
RAF 14 adds Rivera vs Arujau contender match and Bastida vs Kerkvliet
Real American Freestyle put Sebastian Rivera against Vito Arujau as a number one contender match at RAF 14, Oct 23 in Las Vegas, with the winner getting Real Woods for the featherweight belt. The same card adds Yonger Bastida vs Greg Kerkvliet. That is on top of Burroughs vs Caliendo, already announced for the same night. Asked when Rivera last competed, Basch pointed to his win over Haji Aliyev at RAF 10 in June.
Olympic Medalist Sebastian Rivera and World Champion Vito Arujau face off at #RAF14 OCT 23 in Las Vegas.
He beat Haji Aliyev back at RAF 10 in June.
Why it matters: A Woods title defense against either Rivera or Arujau is the best featherweight matchup RAF can make, and Kerkvliet gets a World medalist test at heavyweight.
- RAF 14, Oct 23 in Las Vegas, on Fox Nation
Menlo women cleared for NCAA DII, will wrestle 2027 nationals
Menlo's women's team finished its transition from NAIA to NCAA Division II after a process that ran longer than expected, per FloWrestling. The Oaks have not wrestled a postseason since the 2024 NAIA Championships, which they won by 38 points over Life University. Head coach Michael Ayala will take them to the 2027 NCAA Women's Championships in Coralville, Iowa on March 5-6.
I’m excited we get the opportunity, but this doesn’t guarantee anything for our team
Why it matters: A program with three team titles and 15 individual national champions joins the DII field, which reshuffles that team race the moment they show up.
- March 5-6, 2027: NCAA Women's Championships in Coralville
Takes and analysis
MatSavant charts 3,840 NCAA matches, calls 3-point takedown data terrible
MatSavant analyzed every point scored in the last six NCAA tournaments, 3,840 matches split evenly between 1,920 in the 2-point takedown era and 1,920 in the 3-point era, and said the results are not a great story for the 3-point takedown. Tirapelle's pushback was that the point value is not the problem, that the sport did not adapt the rest of the rulebook around the change, and that two elite guys now wrestle like overtime is coming. Tony Ramos went the other way: the data is in, go back to two. Kozak granted that stalling is up but asked whether extending scoreless matches into sudden victory and rideouts was a better product, and asked MatSavant for the 20-year takedown trend before the rule takes all the blame, since guys keep getting better defensively. This is the evidence base any rules committee push will lean on, with 3-point takedowns still in the book.
The data supports some of the more cynical predictions when 3-point takedowns were proposed, so I suspect we'll hear some I-told-you-so's in the comments.
We have data now and it’s time to go back to 2pt takedowns.
We could switch back to a 2 point takedown and I don't think that single change moves the needle at all. The problem isn't the takedown's point value.
Why it matters: D1 folkstyle coaches, officials and anyone lobbying the rules committee.
- Kozak's open asks to MatSavant: the 20-year takedown trend, plus how majors and techs were affected
- Our take: watch whether Tirapelle's freestyle-style scoreless warnings at 1:00, 2:00 and 2:30 idea gets traction, he floated it after Rotundo asked him about an automatic double stall call when the first period ends 0-0
Quick hits
Iowa leads wrestling attendance again for the 23rd time in 24 seasons
Saturday Night Lights posted the numbers: Iowa led the nation for the 23rd time in 24 seasons at 11,811 fans per home dual, Penn State vs Ohio State drew 16,006 for the largest indoor dual crowd in college wrestling history, and 25 programs averaged 1,000-plus per home dual, nearly double the number from a decade ago. Jason Bryant, replying to @BlueWhitePins and Saturday Night Lights, noted the metric has been average home attendance for 20-plus years and that Penn State had two more home duals than Iowa. Nick Kosko added the conference breakdown of the 1,000-plus clubs: Big Ten 6, Big 12 2, ACC 2.
Bill Farrell registration opens, and it qualifies for 2027 World Team Trials
USA Wrestling opened registration for the 2026 Bill Farrell Memorial International, hosted again by the New York Athletic Club in New York City. Ross Bartachek expects a heavy Iowa turnout given the event is a 2027 World Team Trials qualifier.
stillyboys posts GoFundMe for Benji Mower's cancer fight
stillyboys posted a YouTube video and GoFundMe for Benji Mower, who is fighting cancer. Per the post, Mower is still showing up for his teammates while starting a new chapter with his wife and baby.
Super 32 registration closes Saturday, first seeds next week
MatScoutWillie says final Super 32 registration is this Saturday. The first edition of seeds should be up on MatScouts next week.